Working Papers
No Ripple in the Pond: Exposure to Refugees and Native Well‑Being. (draft available upon request)
with Kamal Kassam (IAB Nürnberg)
Abstract
The number of refugees fleeing global conflicts and crises is steadily increasing, making it crucial to understand their impact on the host countries. This paper examines the impact of a large-scale refugee inflow into Germany on the subjective well-being of natives. We combine county-level administrative records on recently arrived refugees with individual-level survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for the period 2014 to 2019. To identify causal effects, we employ a shift-share instrumental variable strategy based on a regional refugee allocation policy. Despite societal polarization over immigration and skepticism about refugee integration, we do not find a statistically or economically significant impact of local refugee inflows on natives' life satisfaction. This near-zero effect remains consistent across detailed heterogeneity analyses and multiple sensitivity checks. The findings of this study suggest that local exposure to refugees does not disproportionately burden specific groups or regions, thereby highlighting the adaptive capacity of host communities in the face of large-scale migration shocks.Rising waters, falling well-being: The effects of the 2013 East German flood on subjective well-being. (R&R)
with Sachintha Fernando (Halle University) and Christoph Wunder (Halle University)
SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research, No. 1224, DIW Berlin (German Institute for Economic Research)
Abstract
This paper employs a panel event study design to examine the causal effects of the 2013 flood disaster in East Germany on subjective well-being. We merge geo-spatial flood data with longitudinal data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) to identify individuals in affected municipalities. Our results show that those affected by the flood report a significant life satisfaction drop of 0.17 points on an 11-point scale, which is equivalent to a 2.5% fall from pre-flood levels, in the year after the flood. The effect is more severe in peripheral areas than in central areas, and for low-income individuals than for high-income individuals. However, the effect dissipates by 2015. Additionally, we observe a notable initial decrease in health satisfaction, followed by recovery, while financial satisfaction was largely unaffected.Work in Progress
From Heat to Strain: The Impact of Heatwaves on Well-being across Settlement Types
with Felix Zwies (University Bayreuth)